A Brief Colonial History Of Ceylon(SriLanka)
Sri Lanka: One Island Two Nations
A Brief Colonial History Of Ceylon(SriLanka)
Sri Lanka: One Island Two Nations
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Thiranjala Weerasinghe sj.- One Island Two Nations
?????????????????????????????????????????????????Thursday, April 19, 2018
Climate and food security~I
The agricultural system the world over is under tremendous pressure on
the use of resources. This is largely due to the burgeoning population,
urbanisation, climate change and environmental decline.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations has
estimated that food production will have to be raised by at least 60 per
cent to meet the needs of the world’s expected population of 9 billion
by 2050.
This is a formidable challenge for global agriculture given that one in
eight persons is insecure in terms of food. Agriculture is largely
influenced by climate change and variability.
The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its Fifth
Assessment Report (2014), has warned that global climate has been
changing and this will continue to happen in the foreseeable future.
The global mean surface temperatures are predicted to increase by 1.4 to
5.8 degrees C by the end of this century… relative to 1990. There would
also be changes in the variability of climate and in the frequency and
intensity of some extreme climatic developments, leading to uncertain
monsoons and more frequent floods, drought, cyclones and gradual
recession of glaciers.
Climate change is a major threat to agriculture, leading to instability
in food production and adversely affecting food security and the
livelihood of millions of people in many countries.
IPCC has noted that increasing temperature and increased frequency of
floods and drought will have direct and adverse effects on crops,
fisheries, forestry and aquaculture productivity.
The yield loss due to climate change could be up to 35 per cent for
rice, 20 per cent for wheat, 50 per cent for sorghum, 13 per cent for
barley, and 60 per cent for maize. Climate change and climate
variability are critical challenges for global food security,
particularly in underdeveloped and developing economies.
South Asia, as one of the most densely populated regions in the world,
is among the most vulnerable to climate change and climate variability.
Both can have major consequences in terms of food security, poverty and
other developmental goals in the absence of adaptation and mitigation.
India is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to widespread
poverty, dependence of about 50 per cent of its population on
agriculture for livelihood, excessive dependence of agriculture on
natural resources, and limited strategies to cope with a crisis.
Despite the success of Green Revolution technologies in transforming
agriculture, food insecurity, malnutrition, poverty and hunger are
persisting unchecked. Among 119 countries, India ranked 100 and was
classified in the ‘serious category’ with a score of 31.4 in the 2017
global hunger index.
As per FAO estimates, India had the largest number of undernourished
people in the world ~ 190.4 million in 2009-11 and 190.7 million in
2014-16, though the proportion of undernourished persons declined
marginally from 15.8 to 14.5 per cent.
Moreover, continued intensive use of the same technologies and the
consequent environmental problems such as groundwater depletion with the
declining quality of water due to its over exploitation, deteriorating
soil health, etc. are considered responsible for the slowing down of
growth in crop production.
The problem is further aggravated due to global climate change and
increasing climatic variability. The surface air temperature in the
South Asian region was predicted to rise by 0.5-1.2 degrees C by 2020,
0.88-3.16 degrees C by 2050 and 1.56-5.44 degrees C by 2080 depending on
the future development scenarios. The Indian Meteorology Department and
the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (Pune) have projected a
similar trend for temperature, precipitation, heat waves, glaciers,
drought, floods and rise in the sea level.
The predicted increase in temperature and precipitation is likely to
change land and water regimes that have significant implications for
agricultural productivity, and in turn, the food security and livelihood
of farming households.
There is a probability of 10-40 per cent loss of crop production due to
the increase in temperature by 2080-2100. The Indian Council of
Agricultural Research (ICAR) has indicated that food production could
decline by 4.5-9.0 per cent in the medium term (2010-2039) under the
impact of climate change.
The Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) has indicated the
possibility of loss amounting to 4-5 million tonnes in wheat production
with every rise of 1 degree C temperature by 2020-2030. While climate
change is likely to reduce yields of most crops in the long-run,
increased climatic variability could increase fluctuations in production
in the short-run.
The agricultural production system could be further worsened by climate
change through increasing water scarcity, frequency and severity of
floods, and declining soil carbon. The adverse impact of frequent and
severe drought and floods on crop production in many parts of the
country has been reported in several studies.
Thus, climate change and increasing climatic variability will lead to
greater instability in food production and threaten the food security of
millions of farmers and pose a serious challenge to poverty alleviation
by exerting tremendous pressure on the agricultural system.
The agriculture production system will need to adapt to these changes in
order to ensure food security and maintain economic activities and the
livelihood of farming communities.
Efforts to achieve food security entail building resilience of rural
households to climate shocks and strengthening their adaptive capacity
to cope with increased climatic variability.
Agricultural systems including crops, livestock, forestry and fisheries
need to be transformed without degrading the natural resource base to
ensure adequate quantity of quality food to the rising population and to
promote economic growth and alleviate poverty.
FAO has recognised that agriculture must be “climate-smart” to achieve
these goals. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an integrated approach
that increases agricultural productivity and incomes, adapt and build
resilience to climate change, and reduce and/or remove greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions.
Food security has been defined by FAO as “a situation that exists when
all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and
food preferences for an active and healthy life”.
As the availability of foodgrain is essential for security, the primary
necessity is to improve foodgrain production. The small landholders with
an average landholding size of less than two hectares constitute a key
group that needs special attention.
It represents more than 80 per cent of farmers and contributes more than
50 per cent of total agricultural output, cultivating 44 per cent of
agricultural land. The system supports the livelihood and food security
of millions of people.
The CSA approach contributes towards achieving food and livelihood
security and other developmental goals by (i) increasing agricultural
productivity and incomes, (ii) adapting and building resilience to
climate change, and (iii) reducing and/or removing GHG emissions, where
possible.
It integrates climate change into the planning and implementation of
sustainable agricultural strategies, and focuses on developing resilient
food production systems that can lead to food and livelihood security
under climate change and variability. Naturally, an integrated approach
that is receptive to specific local conditions is required for CSA to
become a reality.
The most challenging task is to adopt appropriate strategies that
enhance climate-smart agriculture. The Consultative Group on
International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), in its Research Programme
on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), has been
working with rural communities in collaboration with national programmes
to develop climate-smart villages (CSV) as models of local action that
ensure food security, promote adaptation and build resilience to
climatic problems.
CSV is a community approach to sustainable agricultural development
where farmers, researchers, local partners and policy makers collaborate
to select the most appropriate technological and institutional
interventions on the basis of global knowledge and local conditions to
increase productivity and incomes, achieve climate resilience, and
enable climate mitigation.
It integrates village development and adaptation plans along with local
knowledge and institutions. The major strength of the CSV approach is
its inclusiveness in bringing together farmers, policy makers,
researchers and local organisations to work on a set of climate-smart
technologies and practices with a view to adapt agriculture to climate
change in order to ensure food and livelihood security of farmers in
vulnerable regions.
(To be concluded)
The writer is Professor of Economics, Visva-Bharati University. He can be reached at msghosh123@rediffmail.com